Expert View: In or out of Europe?


NICK DOYLE - Credit: Archant

Nick Doyle of Aitchisons looks at what impact the Referendum is having on the housing market, and what could happen afterwards...

In two weeks time - are we nearly there yet? - the EU Referendum vote will be upon us as we find ourselves currently swimming in a murky ocean of questionable statistics in the media as both sides draw their battle lines. Locally, we have yet to see any tangible impact in the housing market although there may be some hesitancy with some vendors and buyers as the date draws ever closer. Our offices still report a decent demand for properties as we enter the start of the summer market.

The Chancellor has gone on record to say a sharp drop in house prices will occur if we leave although conversely Brexit argue that staying leaves the economy vulnerable to the perilous state of the Euro. The RICS chief economist says prices would continue to rise regardless because of sheer demand and market forces. On and on, back and forth.

There is normally a slow down before any major vote as uncertainty reigns. Prices in the property market are consistently based on one overriding factor or emotion - confidence. From an agent’s perspective, the 23rd can’t come quick enough.

Truth is no one actually knows what will happen and all these extreme opinions on are based on big assumptions. It is not as if economists have a good record of forecasting. The cynics amongst us may say the referendum is also about how far the political football can be kicked back and forth between Cameron and Johnson.

A link which brings me nicely onto the upcoming Euros and England’s prospects, I think I know what will happen there...